 9921 Jinqiao Duan, James Brannan, Vincent Ervin
 Escape Probability, Mean Residence Time and
Geophysical Fluid Particle Dynamics
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Jan 21, 99

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Abstract. Stochastic dynamical systems arise as models for
fluid particle motion in geophysical flows with
random velocity fields. Escape probability (from a fluid domain) and mean
residence time (in a fluid domain) quantify
fluid transport between flow
regimes of different characteristic motion.
We consider a quasigeostrophic meandering jet model with random
perturbations. This jet is parameterized by the
parameter $\beta = \frac{2 \Omega}{r} \cos (\theta)$, where
$\Omega$ is the rotation rate of the earth, $r$ the earth's radius and $\theta$
the latitude. Note that $\Omega$ and $r$ are fixed, so $\beta$ is a monotonic
decreasing function of the latitude. The unperturbed jet
(for $0 < \beta <\frac23$)
consists of a basic flow with attached eddies.
With random perturbations, there is
fluid exchange between regimes of different characteristic motion.
We quantify the exchange by escape probability and mean residence time.
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