95-491 O. Catoni, R. Cerf

The exit path of a Markov chain with rare transitions (431K, postscript) Nov 20, 95

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Abstract. We study the exit path from a general domain after the last visit to a set of a Markov chain with rare transitions. We prove several large deviation principles for the law of the succession of the cycles visited by the process (the cycle path), the succession of the saddle points gone through to jump from cycle to cycle on the cycle path (the saddle path) and the succession of all the points gone through (the exit path). We estimate the time the process spends in each cycle of the cycle path and how it decomposes into the time spent in each point of the exit path. We describe a systematic method to find the most likely saddle paths. We apply these results to the reversible case of the Metropolis dynamics.

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